U.S. Home Price History
1890 - 2025: 135 Years of Data
Explore 135 years of inflation-adjusted home price data based on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Understand long-term trends, market cycles, and historical context to inform your investment decisions.
Historical Price Index
Hover over data points to see event details
Market Cycles Analysis
Click on any cycle to explore detailed analysis, causes, and lessons learned.
Key Historical Insights
Average annual real (inflation-adjusted) appreciation over 135 years. Nominal returns appear higher but inflation erodes purchasing power.
Only two major crashes (1930s, 2008) but both saw 30%+ real declines. Most decades see steady, modest gains.
Rates ranged from 0% to 18%. Every major boom coincided with falling rates; every major correction with rising rates.
Today's index of 272 is 2.7x the historical baseline. The 2020s saw the fastest appreciation since the 2000s bubble.
Every historical crash eventually recovered. The 1930s took 20 years; the 2008 crash took about 10 years to fully recover.
Top markets outperformed bottom markets by 5x over 30-year periods. Geographic selection outweighs market timing.
Investment Implications for Today
Based on historical patterns, here's how to think about current market conditions.
Current High Prices
Focus on cash flow over appreciation. Markets at historical highs require conservative underwriting.
Rising Interest Rates
Higher rates typically slow appreciation. Lock in fixed rates and model higher cap rates.
Potential Correction
History shows 30% declines are possible. Maintain reserves and avoid over-leverage.
Long-Term Hold
Over 20+ year periods, real estate has always recovered and grown. Time heals timing mistakes.
What 135 Years of History Tells Us
The Good News
- Real estate has always recovered from crashes eventually
- Long-term holders have historically been rewarded
- Real estate provides inflation protection over decades
- Cash flow provides returns even when prices are flat
The Cautions
- Real returns are modest (2.1% annually) - don't expect to get rich quick
- Major crashes can take 10-20 years to fully recover
- Current prices are historically elevated (2.7x baseline)
- Rising interest rates historically slow appreciation